Week ending 29-11-15

Here’s last weeks charts. The first is the UK dogs. Not a bad show with an overall positive trend.

151129week

And here’s the Australian chart. 3 stand out points. The two large wins which were lay bets even though the offset lay had already been made. The first lay didn’t show in the “MyBets” page in excel though, so when it came to greening another lay was made. I cant work out why. The large loss was due to an API error, something I’ve experienced before but only on Australian markets. Sometimes it has no effect but the wait time before registering the error is 30 seconds, so if it happens less than 30 seconds before the off there’s no time to get another bet in. I could move last trade time to, say, 35 seconds before off but this requires some code fiddling as the section associated with time is before the market type selection. This is something I’m looking at doing anyway to allow the easy addition of US horses (and possibly others) to the bot. Each error could have gone either way, it just happens to have been 2 wins 1 loss. The chart is a lot more consistent than the UK dogs chart above and a 5 times better return.

Aus151129week

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4 thoughts on “Week ending 29-11-15”

  1. All trades are £2. I tried to adjust for equal return regardless of odds but didn’t work so returned to flat 2. I’ve been meaning to change to % of bank to compound return. Since your recent article and direction I had thought that trade size could be adjusted along with the optimization of entry/exit. I think I’ll put another page on my blog with goals listed, I find it helps focus on the tasks. Current problem is time, again. Running up to Christmas all my customers want there projects finished which leaves little time for anything else.

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    1. I would look at Kelly Criterion. See http://www.betfairprotrader.co.uk/2012/01/kelly-criterion.html

      Kelly Criterion is a percentage based bet based on your edge. Proven to be the optimal way to geometrically grow your wealth.

      However, take it gradually. You might want to optimise for variance. See if you can classify your bets as bankers and others of varying degrees of success. Work out an edge for each and then have a different Kelly size for each.

      Even then I would use a fractional Kelly rather than a fully Kelly. Sometimes Kelly can come up with a large bet as much as 50% of your bankroll but if it is based on a small data set then it is very risky. Try a 1/10th Kelly (whatever Kelly says divided by 10) see how it goes and then slowly increase the fraction. Rarely is a full Kelly used.

      BPT – http://www.betfairprotrader.co.uk

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      1. Thanks for the suggestion, I can add this to the to-do list. If I spend some time on the points you’ve raised, I’m hoping I can increase the performance of my bot. Not sure in what order I’ll do things as I am keen to work through your book but also make the most of what I’ve got going on. I think once I’ve started collecting better data with my bot, I can start on VB whilst it’s running.

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