March ’17

Results

In a change to previous reporting I am moving from week/weeks to monthly stats. And no charts. Here are the results from March, beginning to end –

UK Dogs  Initial slow start to the month but then went on to a steady return. Overall good result with no changes to be made.

Markets = 1595
Bets = 10409
Volume =  £51949.79
Profit =  £59.65
Return =  0.115%

AUS Horses  The first half of the month saw profitable trading but the second half was all over the place with regular enough runs followed by sharp drops, streaks of losing markets, with no further profit added (this has been the same for the start of April). If this continues I will pause Aus trading.

Markets = 821
Bets = 6606
Volume = £62277.75
Profit = £26.55
Return = 0.043%

Comment
Steve commented –

The API crashing should have very little effect on a bots overall profitability other than the fact you’re missing out on opportunities when the site’s offline.

In a way, I agree. If I have an open position when the crash happens, I will either win or lose an unusually large amount for me. If this happens regularly, then, so long as I have enough cash in the bank, these wins and losses should roughly balance out. (This is stretching the view of chance and puts a lot of hope on a balance being seen across a relatively low number of events. I’d rather not rely on this to cover the effect of crashes.) Steve continues –

Every bet you place with a bot should be sent because you believe it to be value at that time and it should be allowed to stand on it’s own merits.

I think at this point Steve has missed my approach to the markets. With regards to the outcome of the event, I have no idea if my entry point is at “value”. This is because I have no interest or care of the event. It matters nothing to me if it’s dogs, horses, pigeons, camels, Pooh sticks or bottled messages that are racing. I am trading on the market movement, not the event. I believe my entry point has a statistical positive value if I can exit shortly after. Therefore, I never want a bet to stand “on it’s own merits” because it doesn’t have any merits (on it’s own). Look at it like this – I think the price is shortening and assume that there are willing backers and layers in the market. I effectively jump in between a backer and a layer, giving them both slightly poorer odds than they could have got and skimming a little bit for myself. That’s how I see it. Steve goes on –

I can understand the mentality of wanting a green book at the off but trading will always be easier to do manually rather than having some set time or ticks to balance your bets.

I disagree. Steve finishes with –

There’s a lot of easy money to be made botting don’t go wasting your time trying to tick for pennies.

In short – “trading will always be easier to do manually” even though “There’s a lot of easy money to be made botting“. With that logic any mouse clicking screen watcher should be raking it in. This I doubt. And the idea of  any easy money left on the exchange is one I don’t believe. But if you have found it, screw it for every last penny and don’t tell anyone.
 

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2 thoughts on “March ’17”

  1. “I think at this point Steve has missed my approach to the markets. With regards to the outcome of the event, I have no idea if my entry point is at “value”. ”

    The simple fact is you won’t win long term gambling or trading if your not getting value. With trading at least one side of your trade needs to be a value bet, optimally we’d have both lay and back as value bets but that’s harder to acheive automated than doing it manually. So whether you like it or not your monthly £26.55 winnings are coming from some of the value bets you place. It’s not particularily hard to identify where your value is coming from bets you’ve placed and from there you can start to fine tune bots so they work as efficiently as possible.

    I did consider writing a much more in depth reply re:value and how to assess it but you do seem to be more interesting in cultivating some cut price Cassini blog personna than your bots for the time being.

    Like

  2. Hi, I am also into bot betting, but with a different twist compared to your approach… You seem to have something interesting going on, have you done some thinking about scaling up stakes? What kind of potential does your strategies have for bigger stakes? Anyway, god luck with your bots and keep us updated on your progress!

    Like

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