I’ve spent a few hours analysing past data to see if restricting price entry points would have any effect. On each day I checked, today, Friday, Wednesday and the previous Wednesday(crash day), all had better outcomes and also more consistent p&l movement as shown on a graph.
In particular, crash-day went from large loss to above average gain. Number of bets reduced between 25% and 50%.
A major flaw was discovered in the code today. An if statement which had been copied and pasted was incorrectly edited, basically resulting in no lay-then-back trades. IMPORTANT NOTE always double check each line of code AND run the code through each possible flow!!!
Today (24th) saw a major outage for betfair with lots of people complaining on Twitter and the forums. It’s one of those things you can’t plan for, well, not easily.
Anyway, I managed to come away unhurt.
It’s unimpressive that betfair has these problems. I can’t remember hearing that financial exchanges are down. Also that bets placed near to outage, where the player is unsure as to whether it is valid, is allowed to stand. When the outage causes such turmoil in the market, bets should be void from a preset period before, then people know where they stand and can take action with other providers. Betfair’s stance towards traders is a little disrespectful. With a large amount of turnover, and therefore liquidity, attributable to traders, their position of “well bettors don’t look to trade out” stinks. Until more move to other exchanges though, this is how it will stay, you get what you’re given so belt up.
Further to my last post, I’ve observed more losses at resistance points. Two noticeable ones today backing at 4.3 which is roughly 100/30.
I just need to spend some time analysing effects on winning trades.
I’ve just been analysing today’s results and focused on an issue I’d previously thought about. That is entering a trade at a whole number. This is the point at which there is likely to be more resistance. Other points could be corresponding odds values e.g. 4.5 as 7/2, 3.25 as 9/4, etc. Today ended down but if no trades had been at whole numbers, it would have ended slightly up.
I won’t change it yet, I’ll keep an eye on it.
Making slight adjustments didn’t seem to have much impact. Then a bad run mid-week hit the daily loss limit.
I slowly worked through the calcs and as previously posted, realised some were useless. I reset all limits and set off again, only making 4 trades one day. I opened up the limits bit by bit over the last 3 days of the week to allow more activity.
Once again I’ll let it run to see what happens.
Having let it trade yesterday with only a few opportunities, I adjusted slightly and today has seen a bit more activity. Results, although early, are mixed.
I’m beginning to think that the way forward might be to integrate this bot, which trades on intention, with my current test bot, which trades on actual activity.
Also thinking I should give my bots names for easy reference. Yes, I think I’ll add some pages to this blog, make it a bit websitey. Goodnight
The algorithm I’ve been using is what I’d previously had some success with. I lifted it from the cells in excel and put it into VBA code. As the results of my bot are getting worse as I try to remove possible points of error, the turnover has decreased (relative to stake). So I had the idea of removing some limits, particularly WOM, to see if higher turnover could be achieved without reducing profit. Whilst manually calculating results I realised that some of the limits were way out of being useful.
I’ve reset all of the limits after studying outcomes and as such the bot is going to behave differently from recent performance. This will require a good amount of testing to monitor effects.