Tag Archives: automated betting

August ’17

The streaming version of Gruss is better now, none of the issues of late with missed market list updates or getting stuck on expired markets.

The new Oscar on the Aus horses has performed flawlessly (apart from another schoolboy error that lead to it trading one race the first day out and not moving on). I now need to add all those changes to the UK dogs, not that I have any trouble there but the code is neater and more efficient, so good practice to implement.

I haven’t done any more with the bots other than update Gruss when new beta versions are released, as I’ve been busy with other things.

A good chart from the UK dogs, less up and down than last month.

chart_ukdogs170831

Generally good for the Aus horses. The sharp up then down was a run of four races where only one back bet was placed. No offset or green bets placed/matched. I’m assuming there was either an API issue or connection problem. These races don’t seem to suffer from early starts, so it isn’t that. And they were different venues. One of those things.

The sharp drop prior to those four errors was a failed offset/greening sequence. There were 7 back bets placed/matched fully but the seventh lay bet wasn’t matched and then greening only partially matched.

These were all before the new code for greening went in, so I’ll have to wait and see if it happens again. I’ve probably said it before but in the long run, these errors tend to have very little effect.

chart_aus_horse170831

Although I praised the US horses last month, compared to the Aus dogs, this chart has pushed me to stopping the bot. Four missed offset bets resulting in a gain overall. I think the way my algo trades the markets, it just isn’t worth the risk with too few bets placed. There isn’t the turnover to recover in time for the next problem/error.

chart_ushorse170831

As mentioned last month I went to the Ebor festival at York for the Saturday races. It was a good event, nice weather, plenty to eat and drink. I’d gone with a tight limit on the betting and placed bets with the on-site bookies, to enjoy the experience. I don’t really like gambling though (in the traditional way), I can’t get past thinking I’m just going to lose as I don’t know anything about picking winners. Won nothing, surprise, but had loads of laughs and enjoyed getting to the front to see the horses race past the finish post, great atmosphere and very impressive. And Saturday night in York was a laugh too, finished with a kebab, “large… hic… everything on it mate… hic…  “, which seems like the best thing ever at the time but probably best forgetting about afterwards, rather than contemplating it’s content.

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June ’17

The big event of June was the release of a beta streaming version of Gruss. As it is in development, the Gruss guys requested feedback and there were a number of bugs highlighted by users. We are now on the sixth release, which is good to know the program is being worked on and improved. The bug that I found related to moving on from suspended markets but after I fed back via the forum, a fix was quickly released. It took a little time for me to grasp the full effects of streaming. At first I thought the refresh was poor as updates were very random. The stream only updates when there is something to update, ie market activity, and doesn’t waste bandwidth by refreshing the same data repeatedly, as before streaming. This gives a refresh chart that can have quite large gaps between updates, especially on markets with some time to go before off. Now, with only a few minutes to off, the refreshes come in more than every 200ms. As there are no requests for price data, there’s no added delay. To note, the charts on the VPS are showing lower times than those at home. The request delay will still be relevant when placing orders in the market but no data is available on what it is.

Another major event, for me, was the changes to the Aus turnover eligibility. I posted about this here. I’m on with the coding around this. I have a section of code that only runs once when a market is selected and then isn’t run every refresh. I’m adding the NSW code there, which was straight forward for checking against the list of courses but tracking the traded back bets over a week is a little more complicated.

The UK dogs have done good this month. I’m considering adjusting the stake range to allow higher bets. I want to trial it on specific markets first. I’m thinking of those that are televised and tend to have much higher activity.

chart_ukdogs170630

An improved chart from the Aus horses compared to recent months. It’s nice to see a good return as I was beginning to lose patience with it and was considering stopping this bot. It’s been a long time since I ran Oscar on the UK horses as there was no value in it for me and I was thinking the Aus horses were going the same way. They still might, to be fair. But for now, with this, it will continue.

chart_aus_horse170630

US horses – better result than not trading them at all. There are some really well funded races that I’m missing, purely down to start times been well off. I’ll continue moaning about this point until I finally get a solution in place (I’ve had some good suggestions from you but the code don’t write itself, I should get on with it).

chart_ushorse170630

Definitely lower activity on the dish-lickers. An unfortunate loss keeping the return in the negative. Not much harm in continuing for now, I consider this my experimental contribution (why not?)

chart_aus_dogs170630

May ’17 – and the art of separation.

Work on the VB bot was frustrating me so I decided to pause it and have a play with Oscar, my VBA bot. I’ve nearly always run one instance of Oscar, navigating between different markets and sports based on some preset criteria. I decided to split the sports, running an instance for UK dogs and one for Aus horsies. This has the benefit of not missing conflicting events across the two sports. The reason Oscar didn’t do this originally is because back in the day, Betfair charged for making excessive calls above a relatively low amount. This changed some time back but I hadn’t.

This new set-up runs well and so I added Aus dogs, also running in its own instance. And why not US horses? OK, they are now covered in another instance. (Previous attempts at US horses had not seen many trades but most races were missed in favour of the other markets.)

I’ve monitored some cross-over times on the VPS and I haven’t seen any drop in performance. At some points in the morning, three of the bots are running at 0.2s refresh rate but I’m still getting a delay of less than 20ms on each.

I did notice the other day that the US horses were buggered by some error in the stated off time. For one venue the times were in the quick pick list but when the markets were selected, the off time was around an hour and a half out. This may have been an API issue but if I see it again I’ll look at coding to handle the mismatch between the two.

Next, Chris commented on Speedy data 2  –

Very interesting articles about bot speeds. I have been looking into the same. I have looked at my algorithms and have improved them. They now return values within 3-4 ms. However the main bottle neck is the price refreshes. Without streaming they currently have a price refresh at 200ms, my prices can be 180 ms out of date. If I was able to implement streaming I could improve my robots speed by a huge amount (probably 100ms), dwarfing any gains that could be made over optimising my robots. So I would suggest that the bottleneck is in your price refreshing and you could see a large improvement with your bots if you were able to stream prices.

Thanks for the comment. 3-4ms is fast and I haven’t seen those speeds from my bots yet. How are you timing the code? And what language are you coding in? The arrival of streaming made me less eager to push on with the VB bot as I don’t want to put all the time in to get the code perfect just to see it become old-hat overnight. Gruss, the software I use for my VBA bots, are releasing a beta streaming version soon. When I’ve had a go with that, I’ll look at how to stream with VB. There’s no point at all in not streaming if it’s faster and as reliable (collective eye roll) as the API-NG.

And now, some charts.

UK dogs have done ok, nice steady performance.

chart_ukdogs170531

Aus horses continue to throw some bad results. The three sharp drops in this chart have different causes. The first is actually 3 losing markets together, so no problem there. The second was an error, a problem I haven’t seen for a while where an extra lay is submitted for some reason. I’ve previously thought this is down to timing and the bot missing signals at specific points, eg when greening occurs and a bet is taken at the same time as a CANCEL-ALL command is triggered. The third was just a bad run of multiple bets being placed within the stoploss window, all eventually losing trades. When I’ve attempted to overcome this particular event in the past, the number of trades significantly reduced. I may look at this again, specifically in the Aus horse markets, but with a more complex solution.

chart_aus_horse170531

NEW – Aus dogs, although not many markets, has a good looking chart, certainly one to watch. Stakes are still hovering around £2 for now.

chart_aus_dogs170531

NEW – US horses, only 3 days here so wait and see what happens in June. Interesting to see average bets per market at 9.9, with other sports being

UK dogs = 5.6

Aus horses = 6.1

Aus dogs = 2.9

chart_ushorse170531

You can find all of Oscar’s UK dogs charts on a single page now – see here.

 

Australian greyhounds and other activities

As mentioned in a previous post, an Oscar clone has been let out of the traps (ha ha, out of the traps – greyhounds, traps, letting out of the… yeah, yeah) and has been trading the Australian greyhounds for the past week. The liquidity is generally lower on these markets, especially for the earlier races but some of the later races are ok. With settings almost identical to those for the UK, only 27 races saw any trading with a total 115 bets settled. Profit of 27 pence (coincidentally) and £270.69 traded, giving a P&L/TV of 0.1%, which is not an unusual figure for Oscar. I’ll let it run for now to see what results come in.

aus_dogs_170521

Other activities

I know many of you will have it on your mind but for those that are new here – back in October I did a post on stakes ending with me wondering what to do with any profits. I gave four possibilities, as I saw it –

  1. Leave it where it is, doing nothing.
  2. Create a second Betfair account, for other/future bots or split activities.
  3. Remove from Betfair, put it in savings to be returned to Betfair when required.
  4. Remove from Betfair, spend it (I doubt this will happen).

Option 2 is not an option. I thought option 3 would be the one to go with but the wife suggested (after pointing out that there wasn’t vast amounts to play with ” and after all that time you spend on the computer“) that I should buy something – option 4 – which was MY LEAST favoured option. So after thinking it over and realising that she was right, because that’s how it is, I decided to part company with my faithful 20+ year old mountain bike (Claud Butler frame swapped for a scrap ’85 Ford Escort, crank and gears from a previous GT, all other parts swapped/added separately pre 2000, except tyres) and purchase a brand spanking shiny new modern lighter full suspension ally framed disk braked, mountain bike. I’ve been using it regularly for the past few months to try (really try) to improve my fitness. This is most certainly a work in progress.

img_20170114_140522068
Old
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New (when it was new)

(p.s. I still have the old bike, just can’t bring myself to drop it at the tip after all these years)

 

Speedy data 2

My Speedy data post generated a few comments and some discussion. I really appreciate people taking the time to get involved and share their knowledge and views.

The first comments came via twitter from TraderBot (here and here) with a link to stackoverflow. This is a site I’ve found to be really useful to get help with many programming issues in multiple languages (That reminds me, I keep meaning to do a list of what I use – apps and sites). The Q&As linked to, although relating to Java, are an interesting read with an answer to the speed question, in summary, of “it depends on what exactly you want to do/measure”.

LiamPauling commented on the post asking where I’m hosted and do I stream? I’m cloud hosted and not streaming. He continues that he thinks bottlenecks are more likely elsewhere, which, after further reference in later comments, seems to be a good point.

Betfair Pro Trader asked why I wanted to use an array. It’s not that I want to use an array more than any other data structure, I was looking at getting the best solution, if such a thing exists (which is becoming less clear).

Tony, via Twitter, suggested running a test code with the different structures used. This could be useful but I was put off from this initially by the confusion I was getting from reading differing opinions based on various implementations of arrays, collections and dictionaries (and later, lists). At this point I was thinking that the optimum stucture is dependant on the specific use and there isn’t an exact answer to my speed question.

Next, a comment from Ken. He points to Lists as it’s something that he uses regularly and he talks of some of the benefits. Again, I’d previously come across articles saying lists were slow but maybe I was too quick to dismiss them. Betfair Pro Trader has also suggested using lists and dictionaries combined. Ken adds that he codes in C# (C sharp) but I think for the purpose of data structures and speed they are similar (they, C# and VB.net compile to the same language and run against the same runtime libraries).

n00bmind added a detailed comment. He makes the point that the advantages of one structure over another are not always so, as mentioned above. Also, he goes on to agree with previous comments that my speed question may be missing the main issues – those being the program/algorithm itself and network latency. Further advice is given about profiling (something, as a specific process, I haven’t come across before) and maybe using a different language, such as Python (I have only a basic understanding of Python from messing with it on my Raspberry Pi).

Finally, Jptrader commented, agreeing mostly with n00bmind, and others, about looking at “handling network latency properly and doing performance profiling”.

Although a simple answer hasn’t been found (because there isn’t one), I’m guided by these comments to focus more on my code, handling serialization and latency, making the algorithm efficient and using the data structures that work for now, whether that’s arrays, collections, dictionaries, lists or a combination of. Moving to another language just isn’t feasible for me at the moment, it’s taken me over a year to get a running bot in VB, with limited hobby time. I am happy to accept that another language may have it’s advantages, so would advise others to look at this for optimising their bots performance (for me the advantage will be seen moving from VBA to VB.net).

The testing I’ve done hasn’t shown any particular advantage of the different structures. From my searches on the web I think this could be due to the relatively small amount of data I’m handling (many articles talk of data lines in the 10s to 100s of thousands when comparing structures). An error on my part also had me making double calls for data with my bot which added to my difficulties and questions initially.

I have plenty to be getting on with for now and will continue looking to improve my bots. Thanks again for all the comments.

Speedy data

Speed is an important part of my bot development. When it comes to storing data, the options (data structures) I’ve been working with are array, collection and dictionary. When I Google for articles on speed, I get lots of information pointing to dictionaries as being the fastest for programming. But the main point of interest in the articles is the speed of looking up data. To find something in an array, all elements have to be looped through until it’s found (or isn’t). The use of keys in collections and dictionaries makes lookup faster as they can be targeted without looping, as long as you know the key(s). There are other advantages that make dictionaries preferred to collections, however they seem less important when looking at speed. A disadvantage of arrays comes when changing its size. Collections and dictionaries can have elements added without problems. To do the same with an array, we have to change its size to accommodate more data, which involves more time as the original is put into temporary memory and a new, re-sized, array created with the existing data then added to it.

This leaves me thinking that the two main speed disadvantages of arrays is searching for data and resizing. Here’s the question I’m looking to answer – if I know the size I want the array to be and I know the location of all the data held in it (so I can refer to each element directly) is there a speed benefit to using collections or dictionaries? Any help appreciated.

Weeks ending 12-03-17

Well nobody spotted last weeks howler – I only titled it “Weeks ending 06-03-17”. I guess you did see it but found more amusement in keeping quiet. You are fun.

algotradingforfun added this comment-

Great 2nd week there. Need to think about handling the bf crash scenario when in autopilot. I don’t think it would be a disaster if not about but does create some extra risk.

Thanks. For me the crashes can be a bit annoying. Oscar backs first so the greatest loss is the stake, assuming a clean cut crash. If you’re laying first the exposed risk between entry and exit is far greater, add multi-runner trading and that increases, something to consider when setting up a bot.

 

Mike also commented-

The regular Betfair crash is a royal pain. Your take of their response is amusing and spot on. There is an API status page (not widely publicized) which is a little more real time than the “help” desk. Don’t know if you can link your bot to the status but might be an option. http://status.developer.betfair.com/

Thanks, again. A pain, agreed. I saw this status link on Twitter for the first time after this last crash and it does provide some confirmation but did seem a bit delayed. After I’d first seen the tweets I looked at the status and only one request was showing problems (/listmarketcatalogue maybe?) so trial and error would see if it could provide any bot use. But it was certainly ahead of the Saturday boy and his well thumbed guide.

 

One week on these charts. Interesting profile on the dogs, start flat, end flat, with sharp rise Friday/Saturday. All figures are in line with previous period which is good.

170312

Aus170312

Another milestone was passed with these results, I became eligible to pay premium charge as my lifetime percentage dropped just below 20 to 19.92%. I’d already used some of my allowance which I think was linked to data charges that are no longer used. So this week saw £1.98 taken off my allowance; at that rate it’ll be 9 years before I actually pay anything. Unfortunately, if my total charges percent continues to fall, the weekly PC will rise. A drop to 19.72% would have seen a PC of £5.50. This is the price of (small) success. On a positive note this does put me in a bracket with 0.5% of customers which, if Wikipedia can be believed, is either 20,000 or 5,500 people. What joy.