Tag Archives: Charts

Weeks ending 12-03-17

Well nobody spotted last weeks howler – I only titled it “Weeks ending 06-03-17”. I guess you did see it but found more amusement in keeping quiet. You are fun.

algotradingforfun added this comment-

Great 2nd week there. Need to think about handling the bf crash scenario when in autopilot. I don’t think it would be a disaster if not about but does create some extra risk.

Thanks. For me the crashes can be a bit annoying. Oscar backs first so the greatest loss is the stake, assuming a clean cut crash. If you’re laying first the exposed risk between entry and exit is far greater, add multi-runner trading and that increases, something to consider when setting up a bot.

 

Mike also commented-

The regular Betfair crash is a royal pain. Your take of their response is amusing and spot on. There is an API status page (not widely publicized) which is a little more real time than the “help” desk. Don’t know if you can link your bot to the status but might be an option. http://status.developer.betfair.com/

Thanks, again. A pain, agreed. I saw this status link on Twitter for the first time after this last crash and it does provide some confirmation but did seem a bit delayed. After I’d first seen the tweets I looked at the status and only one request was showing problems (/listmarketcatalogue maybe?) so trial and error would see if it could provide any bot use. But it was certainly ahead of the Saturday boy and his well thumbed guide.

 

One week on these charts. Interesting profile on the dogs, start flat, end flat, with sharp rise Friday/Saturday. All figures are in line with previous period which is good.

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Another milestone was passed with these results, I became eligible to pay premium charge as my lifetime percentage dropped just below 20 to 19.92%. I’d already used some of my allowance which I think was linked to data charges that are no longer used. So this week saw £1.98 taken off my allowance; at that rate it’ll be 9 years before I actually pay anything. Unfortunately, if my total charges percent continues to fall, the weekly PC will rise. A drop to 19.72% would have seen a PC of £5.50. This is the price of (small) success. On a positive note this does put me in a bracket with 0.5% of customers which, if Wikipedia can be believed, is either 20,000 or 5,500 people. What joy.

Weeks ending 06-03-17

Two weeks this period, starting from 20:30 on the 19th (see last update). A good return from both the dogs and horses but the first week ended barely up. The second week was one of the most profitable I’ve had.

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Saturday 4th March saw another big Betfair crash* with the exchange offline for nearly an hour and betting disabled for some time after that. As I was at the computer when it happened, I took the opportunity to run updates on the VPS OS. I have it set up to tell me when updates are available but I choose when to install them. I’d advise any botter to do this, as the last thing you want is the computer restarting mid-trade after auto-updating. I also decided to add a bit of code to change how and when the bot saves it’s log sheet. A simple enough task as I’d already written the code for another, now retired, bot. Copy, paste, change sheet references and save location, job done, what could possibly go wrong? Not testing with live updating and thinking I know best and the bot locking up at 2am trying to repeatedly save a file that at the second attempt already exists, is what can go wrong. I’ve said it myself before now – always check, check again and test live. And check again. No harm done but missed most Aus horses on Sunday. Added to the missed Saturday dogs, the results are even better.

* All major exchange crashes seem to follow a similar pattern. Some people start reporting blips, pauses in the refresh rate. Betfair Customer Service (a questionable department title if ever there was) denies all knowledge with the stock phrase “It’s all good here”. Then comes total blackout. Many an unrepeatable turn of phrase screamed by the loyal customer base and the Betfair bods half acknowledge with the second phrase of the Betfair How to Keep Customers in Suspense Guide – “We’re looking into it”. Third line, after some threats of violence, use of very specific graphic language and calls for a mass exodus to Betdaq, is- “Apologies for this guys, our techs are on it”. Following a period of silence from the exchange masters, allowing for a build up of calls for refunds and shared stories of thousands lost, comes the market controlling monopoly confirming legal statement – “Refer to our Ts&Cs”. The first few markets after reboot are played cautiously before all but the over-exposed carry on as usual, allowing said monopoly off the recently polished hook.

Weeks ending 19-02-17 (8:30pm)

As previously mentioned I’ve been using my time to code my own trading bot, so this catch-up covers seven weeks by my reckoning. On the dogs the return has been ok at 0.055%. I’m still running on stakes that are not linked to balance but vary within a small  amount. All the dog’s weeks ended positive, just.

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The Aus horses performed better for the period, at 0.084%, but as can be seen from the chart, there was a negative run. This stretched over approximately 10 days. Combined with a low profit for a week from the dogs, this saw the first overall weekly loss for quite some time, ending -£2.62. It does have an emotional impact, even though a small loss, after such a long time seeing the bank’s increased at the end of each Sunday. I did feel like I wanted to change something in the code but I held tight and the P&L returned to a more usual level. This is why I couldn’t trade manually – I’d drift away from the plan after each loss in an endless battle against the now.

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2016 – a brief history (and Week ending 01-01-17)

I’ll start with last week. Dogs were down on number of markets/bets/volume but up again on return. It’s the highest return since July.

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The Aus horses had a good week too. Although return was down slightly, -0.007, the overall trend is good. Last period saw two large losses on the dogs, this time it’s the horses turn. No worries though. Next, on to the annual review.

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Annual review

It’s been a positive year with a profit from most weeks, there were only three weeks ending in an overall loss (across all markets), with one of those due to an error. This year also saw the move to a VPS and then cloud VPS, giving a faster and more consistent connection. I’ve dabbled with my other bots but not taken them live. I tried Oscar over the pond for a while but the US horses were a loss. Slayr was an accident and started out backing, then switched to laying, then back to backing (small number bias and all that). It is still running on Betdaq, an update on that soon, but it doesn’t trade as such, just places a bet based on the prices available. My work on my own trading app stalled but this is going to be my main focus this year. I’ve got Betfair Pro Trader’s new book which is providing inspiration and ideas. I’ve also made myself a plan which I hope will prevent me getting easily distracted and bouncing between one idea and another.

High and low

This years high has to be the brilliantly consistent(ish) profits returned by Oscar. Regardless of actual amounts, the same trading algorithm has performed for the year without many code changes, most of which were not to do with triggers or execution.

The low was the crash of Thursday 26th May at approximately 20:42 which resulted in a loss of £59.40. It set my bank back by around 5 weeks. And it hurt. But, on-wards and upwards as they say.

The year in numbers

The charts I show on the blog include some amounts for the period. The figures for the period 4th January 2016 to 1st January 2017 are as follows –

Number of markets traded = 26775

Number of bets settled = 197158

Traded volume = £1039959.93

P&L = £717.25

PL/TV = 0.069%

Traded volume is probably an incorrect term as it’s taken from finance but never mind. It’s my way of measuring and is simply the total of the amounts going in and out of my account, ie money I’ve traded with other bettors.

The blog

I’ve enjoyed doing the blog. It’s useful for me to be able to look back at what I’ve been doing. I also hope it provides some sort of information/ideas/entertainment/wonder to others. My page views have gone up over the year, mainly with links from Twitter, Betfair Pro Trader and Green All Over. I seem to get views from all across the world – 60% are from the UK but I’ve had hits (according to WP stats) from the following countries Australia, Sweden, Ireland, Portugal, Denmark, Czech Republic, Switzerland, Netherlands, Spain, France, United States, Norway, Italy, Greece, Germany, Slovakia, Brazil, Slovenia, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Russia, Hong Kong SAR China, New Zealand, Cyprus, Mexico, Bulgaria, Argentina, South Africa, Latvia, Finland, India, Turkey, Ukraine, Namibia, Malta, Peru, Austria, Malaysia, Serbia, Lithuania, Taiwan, Macedonia, Columbia, Canada, Croatia, Tunisia, Luxembourg, European Union (What? A country? Yes, according to wordpress), Philippines, Chile, Georgia, Belgium, Nigeria, Isle of Man, Singapore, Mauritius, Yemen, Pakistan, Uzbekistan, Thailand, South Korea, Tanzania, Israel, Iceland, Azerbaijan and, last but by no means least, Zimbabwe.

The future

With a certainty that is unknown in the betting/trading/gambling world, the future is definitely coming. As for what or when I do anything, I don’t want to make any promises. I do intend to become a more proficient VB programmer and a better bot trader, in that order.

Happy New Year!

Week ending 25-12-16

One week. A good end to the week. Monday/Tuesday were flat but the rest of the week ran at an increased pace returning a very good 0.107%. The two large losses, 2.24 and 2.26, were both in average markets, no low matched volumes or out of the ordinary movements that I can see. With one and a half days less markets this period, there was only 4 less markets traded and 9 less settled bets than the previous week. This may be down to more participants as people were finishing for the holidays.

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A similar feature to the Aus chart as on the dogs – Mon/Tues flat – but here the increased profit curve runs through Weds/Thurs/Fri, then flattens off for the Christmas Eve markets. It’s still the best return for a period on the Aus horses since the end of September. Look forward to putting the years trading results in the first Annual Review.

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Weeks ending 18-12-16

One week period, I’m overdoing it. The UK dogs have picked up though markets/bets/volume are down, the return is increased. Still, my bot is continuing in profit, steady but consistent profit.

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Aus markets have taken a severe turn for the worse with six notable losses. Unsurprisingly, the stake this week has been around the £10 mark. Looking back over some previous charts, it’s safe to say that the Aus horses are less consistent than the UK ones but, I have noticed, a stake between £8 and £9.7 coincides with better, smother charts. I’ll reduce again and observe. One issue on my mind is the time of year and the possibility of getting unusual results from changes in market activity; just a thought.

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Weeks ending 11-12-16

A massive 4 week period. An overall UK dogs chart similar to the last period but a closer look reveals return is down from 0.1% to 0.058%. I guess this is a result of the stake increasing as it’s linked to balance. This has meant a P&L value over 4 weeks that’s close to the previous 3 week period. I’ve done very little with Oscar this past month, some code cleaning and a little change to archiving but no changes to market monitoring or execution.

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On the Aus markets, they gave an increased return, up 0.032 to 0.089%. The change in rate of rise on the graph at around the 320 point coincides with the stake pushing past £9. I can’t see why this would have any impact. It was a Friday, late November. Ooh, Black Friday. Maybe a bit of overspend took some players out of the market? Maybe not. Unless overspending botters only trade Aus horses and not UK dogs. Here’s an unconfirmed  fact: one Australian term for dogs is “dish lickers”. I think it’s fun and actually descriptively correct. That said, keep on botting and just in case some time passes, merry Winter celebrations.

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