I changed my stake amount from flat 2 quid to amount based on current odds. I just made it up without checking, thinking I knew already. So it works as
xstake/(current odds – 1)
No checking or testing. Just threw it in. Performance since had been flat. I’ve looked at all sorts. Then I thought “hold on a minute, this started when I changed staking plan.” I’ve just done some calcs and found that it doesn’t work quite like I thought.
Changes will be made. Tests will be done.
This is what gets me going. I tested my UPS the other day and it managed 1 minute before starting shutdown procedure. My pc runs at around 120 watt so the UPS should give at least ten minutes before low-battery status kicks in shutdown. So I ordered a new battery. £9.95+vat. Look at it, all shiny and new, just waiting to provide stand-by power. Happy days.
I should really let it run. After looking back over last two days I decided to change settings, then adjust after one event, then adjust again. That’s not how it works and I know this. Only after a lot of markets have been traded can any idea of effectiveness be established. So I’ve set it back to how it was this morning and it can run for the rest of this week.
I’ve spent a few hours analysing past data to see if restricting price entry points would have any effect. On each day I checked, today, Friday, Wednesday and the previous Wednesday(crash day), all had better outcomes and also more consistent p&l movement as shown on a graph.
In particular, crash-day went from large loss to above average gain. Number of bets reduced between 25% and 50%.
A major flaw was discovered in the code today. An if statement which had been copied and pasted was incorrectly edited, basically resulting in no lay-then-back trades. IMPORTANT NOTE always double check each line of code AND run the code through each possible flow!!!
Today (24th) saw a major outage for betfair with lots of people complaining on Twitter and the forums. It’s one of those things you can’t plan for, well, not easily.
Anyway, I managed to come away unhurt.
It’s unimpressive that betfair has these problems. I can’t remember hearing that financial exchanges are down. Also that bets placed near to outage, where the player is unsure as to whether it is valid, is allowed to stand. When the outage causes such turmoil in the market, bets should be void from a preset period before, then people know where they stand and can take action with other providers. Betfair’s stance towards traders is a little disrespectful. With a large amount of turnover, and therefore liquidity, attributable to traders, their position of “well bettors don’t look to trade out” stinks. Until more move to other exchanges though, this is how it will stay, you get what you’re given so belt up.
Further to my last post, I’ve observed more losses at resistance points. Two noticeable ones today backing at 4.3 which is roughly 100/30.
I just need to spend some time analysing effects on winning trades.
I’ve just been analysing today’s results and focused on an issue I’d previously thought about. That is entering a trade at a whole number. This is the point at which there is likely to be more resistance. Other points could be corresponding odds values e.g. 4.5 as 7/2, 3.25 as 9/4, etc. Today ended down but if no trades had been at whole numbers, it would have ended slightly up.
I won’t change it yet, I’ll keep an eye on it.