With Oscar running on the VPS, I can view the desktop from my mobile and, with no rush to get out of bed this morning, I had a look to see what was happening. Something was wrong, an error but not costly.
- System time was 7:34
- Next race in list was due off at 6:43
- Countdown timer was at +17 mins (should be -51mins)
- Transaction log had over 41000 entries and nothing in since 16:30 yesterday
- Last trades in Betfair history were 3:00 this morning
I don’t know why this happened but am guessing it’s been too long since I last restarted the software. I’ve hit an error before in VBA with having variables declared with too low capacity and not coding to deal with when they’re full. Today’s error was on the Gruss side of the set-up and maybe running for 44 days without stopping is too long and fills a dim. I’d be more sure if the log was at a capacity level but I don’t think there’s any variable limit around 41000.
Action taken – saved transaction log and rebooted Gruss. It’s traded some races over the past hour or so and all seems well again.
After 2 more loses yesterday (taking results to 1 win in 14 bets) using my simple bet code, I’ve decided to set it going alone whilst I work on the Bot 3 code. I’ve taken the (I think) wise decision to switch it to lay whilst still using the same indicators. I’m calling Bot 5 Slayr (Simple LAY Robot) purely for entertainment.
I’ve been recoding my horse racing form bot (Bot 3), trying to get it to work without errors. It scrapes a lot of data for each race – runner form, jockey form, track data, going, weather. Having got it to a point where it runs okay with me sat in front of it, I decided to run it live on the VPS but without placing bets, allowing performance and data collection checks. To keep things separate I’m running this on Betdaq with a slow refresh and, as I’ve not used it for a while, I’ve added a short section of code to place some pointless bets based on where the market odds are, nothing to do with the bots purpose but hopefully keeps the exchange happy.
The results so far are good and the bot is gathering most of the data without error. Any missing data isn’t causing the bot to stop, however, I’d like it to make multiple attempts to gather it, so some adjustments are needed. The algorithm for choosing a selection to back or lay is operational but requires refining. I’m basically calculating my own ‘betting forecast’ and backing or laying a selection depending on how far away from my suggested odds it is trading.
The interesting part comes from the short bet placement code I added. Of the 12 bets it placed over the five days testing, only 1 of the selections won. Obviously I’d backed them all.
My theory for this code was – if I place bets in efficient markets (which I thought close-to-off horse racing markets were), I will likely lose at a rate around my commission (5%) plus half the spread position. Therefore stakes of £0.1 are a small price for testing.
I know the small sample is hardly proof but with average odds of 3, none greater than 3.5 and results at 12, I’m going to keep this little code running to see how it pans out and update the blog on results. It will be interesting to find out if I just happened to drop into the strategy during a 10 long losing streak.
I’ve added a short clip showing how to open a remote connection with VPS. Brian from Ivona does the narration, What a guy.
Tony asked about where to start with a VPS so I thought I’d do a short guide to getting the set-up I have.
Here are some previous blog posts on the subject-
VPS – includes Mike’s contribution
VPS active – My initial VPS package and MSOffice
Api delay testing – The improvements measured
From VPS to Cloud Hosting – Another step forward
To get the cloud VPS, go to Tagadab and choose what spec you want by moving the slides This is what I selected –
Then on the next page, I choose Windows server 2012. I don’t know what the difference is between 2008 and 2012 but 2012 sounds better to me. There are some other options on the page but I didn’t select any. This gives a monthly price of £15 including VAT.
Click on the “Create Virtual” button and on the next page, check everything and click “buy”. You’ll get the emails telling you they’re on with it and then one telling you it’s ready. My VPS took about 15 mins to be ready, on a bank holiday. Log into your account on-line and click on your server icon –
Then click on the green connect tab –
In the pop-up you can download the RDP file which makes connecting to your server a doddle. This puts an icon on your desktop. Just open it like any other icon and away you go.
You can open IE to download apps. Files can be transferred by simple copy/paste as the clipboard is shared between your PC and the VPS
Here’s a short video of connecting to the VPS Opening VPS from desktop. Hope this helps.
Here are Oscar’s charts. The dogs have done well to return 0.079% with volume increased by over 2.5x since January. I want to start adjusting stake to matched volume as I think the effect of it’s current size on smaller markets is negative. I’ve only looked at a few examples so far, so more investigation is required.
The Aus chart is pleasing with a good return. This is in line with expectation after the percentage stake effect I mentioned last week.
(Sorry for chart quality, I’ve been playing around with settings. I’ll try again next time.)
A few days ago, Ken asked why I chose the VPS from Tagadab instead of their Cloud Hosting service. To be honest I’m not sure about all these things and thought “hosting” was to do with websites and the like, whereas I see a VPS as just like my PC but based in a data-centre somewhere. ( You can view the conversation we had at the end of the post VPS active)
The Tagadab Cloud is just like a VPS but with the ability to change cores/memory/storage at any time whenever you need it, so it’s more flexible. Also it is 100% SSD (my VPS was Hard Disk) and it should provider better reliability and performance according to their website. More interesting to me was that it starts at a lower price point. A windows system starts at £13.30, which is 1 core, 1MB memory and 20GB storage. The cheapest VPS with SSD is £22.19 (I was paying £17.99 without.)
I’ve opted for the same size storage I had with the VPS, so all in it is now costing me £14.99/month. Here’s how my old VPS and new Cloud compare –
The allowed bandwidth is 25% of the VPS but I was averaging less than 350MB/day (approx 10GB/month) and if I use more, it costs £0.02/GB. (I still don’t understand the bandwidth, as the Cloud is free inbound and £0.02/GB after 50GB outbound. I will ask the question.)
As I’d installed a copy of MSOffice on the VPS I wanted to keep it. The very helpful Tagadab team transferred my VPS to the Cloud, including the installed apps and kept the same OS settings.
I also asked if the Cloud was based in the UK and they told me it was in the same location as the VPS in London.
So for now I’m £3/month up with better performance –
THANKS KEN! 🙂